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An increase in the intensity of extreme wind storms is expected.

Projections indicate a decrease in wind speeds for summer and increases for winter.


Observed change

  • No long-term trend in wind speed can be determined with confidence based on the limited analysis carried out to date.
  • Comprehensive analysis of wind data will be carried out by Met Éireann during 2021.


Projected change

  • Projections indicate a slight reduction in wind speed (10 m) of 1-2.7% for the RCP 4.5 (Medium to low) and 1.6-3.3% for the RCP 8.5 (high emissions) scenarios.
  • All seasons show a projected decrease with the highest decreases projected for summer under the RCP 8.5 (high emissions) scenario).
  • Projections indicate a decrease in the numbers of less intense storms for Ireland with an increase in more intense storms which are rare events. However, due to a limited number of studies, these projections should be considered with a high level of caution.

Climate status report for Ireland 2020, Camaro & Dwyer: climate observations report

High-resolution Climate Projections for Ireland - A Multi-model ensemble approach 2020, Nolan & Flanagan: climate projections report