Sea level rise (SLR)

Sea levels are expected to increase for all Irish coastal areas.

Projected changes in sea level will magnify the impacts of changing storm surge and wave patterns in coastal areas.

Global sea level increased by approximately 0.20m between 1901 and 2018, and the rate of global sea level rise is accelerating.
Satellite observations indicate that sea level around Ireland has risen by approximately 2-3mm per year since the early 1990s.
Recent studies have highlighted higher rates of sea level rise since the late 20th century in Cork and Dublin than the global average. Reasons for this are unclear and currently under investigation. There are a range of processes that can lead to local sea level changes diverging to a certain extent from global changes over a broad range of timescales.

Global mean sea level increases will occur under all scenarios and continue for thousands of years after the global temperature is stabilised. By 2100 projected additional rises range from 0.32–0.6m under Early action to 0.63– 1.01m under Late action scenarios, with high uncertainty for the latter case whereby 2m rise could occur owing to highly uncertain ice sheet processes. Over the next 2,000 years, global mean sea level will rise by about 2 to 3m if warming is limited to 1.5°C, 2 to 6m if limited to 2°C and 19 to 22m with 5°C of warming.
Storm surges and extreme waves pose an ever-increasing threat to Ireland as sea levels continue to rise, including for many coastal cities such as Cork, Dublin, Galway and Limerick, and to critical infrastructure. Particularly at risk are soft sediment shorelines.